Cloud parameters from GOES visible and infrared radiances during the FIRE Cirrus IFO, October 1986

Visible (VIS, 0.65 micron) and infrared (IR, 10.5 microns) channels on geostationary satellites are the key elements of the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). All daytime ISCCP cloud parameters are derived from a combination of VIS and IR data. Validation and improvement of the ISCCP and other cloud retrieval algorithms are important components of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Intensive Field Observations (IFO). Data from the Cirrus IFO (October 19 to November 2, 1986) over Wisconsin are available for validating cirrus cloud retrievals from satellites. The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) located over the Equator at approximately 100 deg W provided nearly continuous measurements of VIS and IR radiances over the IFO areas. The preliminary results of cloud parameters derived from the IFO GOES data are presented. Cloud attitudes are first derived using an algorithms without corrections for cloud emissivity. These same parameters will then be computed from the same data relying on an emissivity correction algorithm based on correlative data taken during the Cirrus IFO

Satellite-derived cloud fields during the FIRE cirrus IFO case study

The First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Cirrus Intensive Field Observation (IFO) program measured cirrus cloud properties with a variety of instruments from the surface, aircraft, and satellites. Surface and aircraft observations provide a small scale point and line measurements of different micro- and macro-physical properties of advecting and evolving cloud systems. Satellite radiance data may be used to measure the areal variations of the bulk cloud characteristics over meso- and large scales. Ideally, the detailed cloud properties derived from the small scale measurements should be tied to the bulk cloud properties typically derived from the satellite data. Full linkage of these data sets for a comprehensive description of a given cloud field, one of the goals of FIRE, should lead to significant progress in understanding, measuring, and modeling cirrus cloud systems. The relationships derived from intercomparisons of lidar and satellite data by Minnis et al. are exploited in a mesoscale analysis of the satellite data taken over Wisconsin during the Cirrus IFO case study

Intercomparisons of GOES-derived cloud parameters and surface observations over San Nicolas Island

The spatial sampling limitations of surface measurement systems necessitate the use of satellite data for the investigation of large-scale cloud processes. Understanding the information contained in the satellite-observed radiances, however, requires a connection between the remotely sensed cloud properties and those more directly observed within the troposphere. Surface measurements taken during the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Marine Stratocumulus Intensive Field Observations (IFO) are compared here to cloud properties determined from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data in order to determine how well the island measurements represent larger areas and to verify some of the satellite-measured parameters

Extended time observations of California marine stratocumulus clouds from GOES for July 1983-1987

One of the goals of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) is to relate the relatively small scale (spatial and temporal) Intensive Field Observations (IFO) to larger time and space domains embodied in the Extended Time Observations (ETO) phase of the experiment. The data analyzed as part of the ETO are to be used to determine some climatological features of the limited area which encompasses the Marine Stratocumulus IFO which took place between 29 June and 19 July 1987 off the coast of southern California

Cloud parameters derived from GOES during the 1987 marine stratocumulus FIRE Intensive Field Observation (IFO) period

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) is well suited for observations of the variations of clouds over many temporal and spatial scales. For this reason, GOES data taken during the Marine Stratocumulus Intensive Field Observations (IFO) (June 29 to July 19, 1987, Kloessel et al.) serve several purposes. One facet of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) is improvement of the understanding of cloud parameter retrievals from satellite-observed radiances. This involves comparisons of coincident satellite cloud parameters and high resolution data taken by various instruments on other platforms during the IFO periods. Another aspect of FIRE is the improvement of both large- and small-scale models of stratocumulus used in general circulation models (GCMs). This may involve, among other studies, linking the small-scale processes observed during the IFO to the variations in large-scale cloud fields observed with the satellites during the IFO and Extended Time Observation (ETO) periods. Preliminary results are presented of an analysis of GOES data covering most of the IFO period. The large scale cloud-field characteristics are derived, then related to a longer period of measurements. Finally, some point measurements taken from the surface are compared to regional scale cloud parameters derived from satellite radiances

Satellite-derived cloud and radiation fields over the marine stratocumulus IFO

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) is the only source for nearly continuous areal coverage of clouds within the California marine stratocumulus region. The cloud parameters derived from GOES data during the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) Marine Stratocumulus Intensive Field Observations (IFO) are summarized

Cirrus cloud properties derived from coincident GOES and lidar data during the 1986 FIRE Cirrus Intensive Field Observations (IFO)

One of the main difficulties in detecting cirrus clouds and determining their correct altitude using satellite measurements is their nonblackness. In the present algorithm (Rossow et al., 1985) used by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), the cirrus cloud emissivity is estimated from the derived cloud reflectance using a theoretical model relating visible (VIS, 0.65 micron) optical depth to infrared (IR, 10.5 micron) emissivity. At this time, it is unknown how accurate this approach is or how the derived cloud altitude relates to the physical properties of the cloud. The First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) presents opportunities for determining how the observed radiances depend on the cloud properties. During the FIRE Cirrus Intensive Field Observations (IFO, see Starr, 1987), time series of cloud thickness, height, and relative optical densities were measured from several surface-based lidars. Cloud microphysics and radiances at various wavelengths were also measured simultaneously over these sites from aircraft at specific times during the IFO (October 19 to November 2, 1986). Satellite-observed radiances taken simultaneously can be matched with these data to determine their relationships to the cirrus characteristics. The first step is taken toward relating all of these variables to the satellite observations. Lidar-derived cloud heights are used to determine cloud temperatures which are used to estimate cloud emissivities from the satellite IR radiances. These results are then correlated to the observed VIS reflectances for various solar zenith angles

4-D Cloud Water Content Fields Derived from Operational Satellite Data

In order to improve operational safety and efficiency, the transportation industry, including aviation, has an urgent need for accurate diagnoses and predictions of clouds and associated weather conditions. Adverse weather accounts for 70% of all air traffic delays within the U.S. National Airspace System. The Federal Aviation Administration has determined that as much as two thirds of weather-related delays are potentially avoidable with better weather information and roughly 20% of all aviation accidents are weather related. Thus, it is recognized that an important factor in meeting the goals of the Next Generation Transportation System (NexGen) vision is the improved integration of weather information. The concept of a 4-D weather cube is being developed to address that need by integrating observed and forecasted weather information into a shared 4-D database, providing an integrated and nationally consistent weather picture for a variety of users and to support operational decision support systems. Weather analyses and forecasts derived using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are a critical tool that forecasters rely on for guidance and also an important element in current and future decision support systems. For example, the Rapid Update Cycle (RUC) and the recently implemented Rapid Refresh (RR) Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) models provide high frequency forecasts and are key elements of the FAA Aviation Weather Research Program. Because clouds play a crucial role in the dynamics and thermodynamics of the atmosphere, they must be adequately accounted for in NWP models. The RUC, for example, cycles at full resolution five cloud microphysical species (cloud water, cloud ice, rain, snow, and graupel) and has the capability of updating these fields from observations. In order to improve the models initial state and subsequent forecasts, cloud top altitude (or temperature, T(sub c)) derived from operational satellite data, surface observations of cloud base altitude, radar reflectivity, and lightning data are used to help build and remove clouds in the models assimilation system. Despite this advance and the many recent advances made in our understanding of cloud physical processes and radiative effects, many problems remain in adequately representing clouds in models. While the assimilation of cloud top information derived from operational satellite data has merit, other information is available that has not yet been exploited. For example, the vertically integrated cloud water content (CWC) or cloud water path (CWP) and cloud geometric thickness (delta Z) are standard products being derived routinely from operational satellite data. These and other cloud products have been validated under a variety of conditions. Since the uncertainties have generally been found to be less than those found in model analyses and forecasts, the satellite products should be suitable for data assimilation, provided an appropriate strategy can be developed that links the satellite-derived cloud parameters with cloud parameters specified in the model. In this paper, we briefly outline such a strategy and describe a methodology to retrieve cloud water content profiles from operational satellite data. Initial results and future plans are presented. It is expected that the direct assimilation of this new product will provide the most accurate depiction of the vertical distribution of cloud water ever produced at the high spatial and temporal resolution needed for short term weather analyses and forecasts

Basic Diagnosis and Prediction of Persistent Contrail Occurrence using High-resolution Numerical Weather Analyses/Forecasts and Logistic Regression. Part I: Effects of Random Error

Straightforward application of the Schmidt-Appleman contrail formation criteria to diagnose persistent contrail occurrence from numerical weather prediction data is hindered by significant bias errors in the upper tropospheric humidity. Logistic models of contrail occurrence have been proposed to overcome this problem, but basic questions remain about how random measurement error may affect their accuracy. A set of 5000 synthetic contrail observations is created to study the effects of random error in these probabilistic models. The simulated observations are based on distributions of temperature, humidity, and vertical velocity derived from Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS) weather analyses. The logistic models created from the simulated observations were evaluated using two common statistical measures of model accuracy, the percent correct (PC) and the Hanssen-Kuipers discriminant (HKD). To convert the probabilistic results of the logistic models into a dichotomous yes/no choice suitable for the statistical measures, two critical probability thresholds are considered. The HKD scores are higher when the climatological frequency of contrail occurrence is used as the critical threshold, while the PC scores are higher when the critical probability threshold is 0.5. For both thresholds, typical random errors in temperature, relative humidity, and vertical velocity are found to be small enough to allow for accurate logistic models of contrail occurrence. The accuracy of the models developed from synthetic data is over 85 percent for both the prediction of contrail occurrence and non-occurrence, although in practice, larger errors would be anticipated

A comparison of ISCCP and FIRE satellite cloud parameters

One of the goals of the First ISCCP Regional Experiment (FIRE) is the quantification of the uncertainties in the cloud parameter products derived by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP). This validation effort has many facets including sensitivity analyses and comparisons to similar data or theoretical results with known accuracies. The FIRE provides cloud-truth data at particular points or along particular lines from surface and aircraft measurement systems. Relating these data to the larger, area-averaged ISCCP results requires intermediate steps using higher resolution satellite data analyses. Errors in the cloud products derived with a particular method can be determined by performing analyses of high resolution satellite data over the area surrounding the point or line measurement. This same analysis technique may then be used to derive cloud parameters over a larger area containing similar cloud fields. It is assumed that the uncertainties found for the small scale analyses are the same for the large scale so that the method has been calibrated for the particular cloud type; i.e., its accuracy is known. Differences between the large scale results using the ISCCP technique and the calibrated method can be computed and used to determine if any significant biases or rms errors occur in the ISCCP results. Selected ISCCP results are compared to cloud parameters derived using the hybrid bispectral threshold method over the FIRE IFO and extended observation areas